Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
